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By Thomas G. Del Beccaro
www.politicalvanguard.com
Posted May 20, 2008
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The American system of Government, with its checks and balances, tends to restrict wide policy swings from one Presidency to the next. Over the broad spectrum of American history, the differences of the parties have not always been very pronounced.
Consider the Nixon years when social welfare spending jumped from just over 6% of the economy to over 10% largely at the behest of Republican Nixon. Such occurrences have fostered the words Demopublicans and Republocrats. Contrast that with the British system of Government which has produced broader policy swings when the Labour Party and the Conservative Party change roles.
A Barack Obama victory, however, will likely usher in a stark difference between the parties not unlike the election of Roosevelt in 1932 and Reagan in 1980. Very serious policy implications are likely to follow in just the first two years as the Democrats seek to capitalize on their new found power.
- The House/Senate - Legislation. An Obama victory more than likely means that the Democrats will pick up 10 to 15 or more seats in the House and 3-4 in the Senate. The recent special election losses of House seats and a North Carolina Senate poll showing the incumbent Elizabeth Dole in a tight race forewarns of such an outcome.
- Knowing that their own poll numbers are low - all the while understanding that the first two years of a Presidency are the most productive and that time may not be on their side, the new Democrat President and Congress will likely move quickly to push their agenda. Look for an ambitious legislative agenda with "progressive" legislation on health care, i.e. a huge leap toward nationalized health care, many labor friendly bills including a possible shortened work week, the elimination of secret ballots for union elections/formation, and more (as the Unions cash in after spending a projected $1 billion this fall on behalf of the Dems) as well as the tax increases referenced below - all in the first 100 days.
- The only risk to such an agenda will be the fact that Obama has no management, appointment or policy experience - as a result, he may be slow getting out of the box and run into trouble with his appointments. Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, however, will be ready with their agenda and may well have an exaggerated influence on policy the first year.
- The Judicial Implications. In the first 2 years of an Obama term, Ruth Bader Ginsberg (75 years old) and John Paul Stevens (88) will unquestionably resign from the Supreme Court to permit a flush Democrat Congress to appoint like-minded activist judges to tenures likely to last 25 years or more. Justice Breyer (70) and/or Souter (68) may well follow suit, if not in the first two years, before the next election to ensure that a Democrat replaces them - remember Breyer openly professes a belief for an activist judiciary and probably won't want to risk another 8 year Republican Presidency. Justice Kennedy, now 72, may well have to resign during the 4 year term making it possible that a clear 5 – 4 majority for a liberal court could be ushered in for the next 25 years. That is not hyperbole, it is a distinct possibility.
- The High Tax Implications. Obama has promised to “go after the wealthy” as if they are big game to be hunted down. In advance of his swearing in, look for a spate of capital gains sales in late 2008 as investors seek to cash in gains at the 2008 rate of 15% - actually pushing up 2008 tax receipts. Thereafter, Obama will raise the capital gains rate to at least 28% and perhaps higher because Pelosi and the Democrat leadership do not believe that the "rich" should be taxed at a lower rate than the working class (and receipts will fall considerably in 2009 and 2010). Obama will also hike the income tax rates to as high as 52% with the help of the new House and Senate Democrats. Look for 2010 tax receipts from income taxes to fall considerably as well. Income tax receipts for corporations, already falling due to a weak economy brought on by the 2nd highest tax burden in US history, will continue to fall because Obama and the Dems will continue to pile on new taxes and more regulations on corporations.
- The Weak Economy Implications. The US economy is weak principally because we have the 2nd highest overall tax burden in our history. When the tax burden is that high, economies face real trouble and can be tipped into recession rather easily. The housing problems are just that type of straw that weakened the back of the current US economy.
- Obama’s tax hike will put the economy over the edge and we will face significant stagflation (low growth turning to a significant recession and rising Consumer Prices) in 2009 and 2010.
- Consumer prices will continue to rise, as they did under Carter, because Obama and the Democrats will push a pliable Fed to continue its current easy money policies at the same time that oil prices will continue to increase (oil prices will continue to rise because of demand from China and India, Middle East instability (see below), new taxes on oil companies that will be passed by the Democrats seeking to punish companies that "send jobs overseas" as well as tighter regulations).
- In the meantime, the supply/output side of the economy will be choked off because of the tax hikes and the inevitable spate of new regulations which the Obama administration will put into place. Keep in mind that Obama recently said that ""We can't drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times ... and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK," Obama said. Actually, foriegn countries have no say in whether we do that unless we give them that say. Obama's comment is a strong indication that he will - so watch for a Kyoto like treaties whereby America hands over part of its sovereignty to international watchdogs that will regulate our economic life. The sum result of those regulation will be to drive up consumer prices because our output will fall as a result of higher costs. Such treaties/regulations will harm our economy for years upon years.
- Outsourcing will actually rise, not fall, contrary to Obama's promise to stop jobs from going overseas, because his added regulations and corporate taxes will push up the cost of doing business in America and companies will respond by reducing their American presence even further.
- The housing market and the stock market will not post significant gains as rising interest rates push up money market returns and investors seek guaranteed returns from financial institutions and tax free municipal/government bonds (as opposed to risking their capital in a weak economy with high tax rates) – a dynamic which will further weaken the economy. It used to be that investors jumped into the stock market when Dems were elected because of their easy money policies - but the foregoing will reduce that impulse.
- The deficit will rise as the economy continues to weaken and spending explodes under the Democrat Congress that is responsive to a good portion of the over $1 trillion of new spending offered by Obama so far - that dynamic will give rise to calls for more tax hikes.
- The coffers of state governments will suffer because of the weak economy. Since states can't print money, those that honestly comply with their balanced budget laws will undergo difficult budget battles.
- Immigration Policy Implications. There can be no question that Pelosi will push for an "amnesty bill" in the first 100 days that will go farther than the worst bill that was rejected in the past.
- The Foreign Policy Implications. Uncertainty will set in many hot-spots around the world and a challenge to the new Administration can be expected – much like many new administrations have been tested.
- Obama’s Palestinian sympathies will play out in veiled ways and Hamas and Hezbollah will be emboldened in their overt and covert war against the very existence of Israel. Lebanon will likely suffer the most immediate, negative affect as Hezbollah moves quickly to consolidate its hold over that Country. That "Fall of Lebanon" will mean that Iran ( Hezbollah's supplier) will have a "border" with Israel and Syria will have an even larger border.
- Iran’s bellicose policies will rise, at least in the short term, as a test to see if the Obama administration has any resolve. If Obama is foolish enough to have direct talks with Iran, look for Iran to use it as a theatre for denouncing recent American efforts in the Middle East/Iraq and pronouncing that the Fall of Lebanon was a repudiation of American Middle East policy that favored democratic movements. The end results of the talks, wherein American was scolded and Iran given an equal stage, will be to make America look weak and not to be feared - not unlike the Kennedy/Khrushchev meeting of 1961 which emboldened Krushchev and a year later we had the Cuban Missile Crisis. If Obama is smart, he will listen to his advisors who tell him not to speak to Iran in the wake of the Fall of Lebanon and use Iran's participation in that Fall as an excuse to break with his campaign promise.
- In general, Middle East tensions will rise, not fall, leading to even higher oil prices. Obama also may be tested immediately in Afghanistan or Iraq but it is more likely that our enemies in those theatres will wait to see if Obama keeps good on his withdrawal promise. If Obama does, al Qaida and the Taliban will likely wait to escalate their terror until the US has made significant withdrawals. Russia will take advantage of escalating problems elsewhere to solidify its anti-Democratic trends and control over some of its neighbors.
- Look for Hugo Chavez of Venezuela to escalate his not-so-covert war with Colombia as the Middle East tensions rise and US attention is drawn to that region. Finally, look for China to assert itself vis-à-vis Taiwan amidst all of these challenges to the US around the World.
- Last but not least, look for the US to defer to the UN, if not in practice, perhaps legally as Obama commits the US to act in some way subject to UN oversight.
Those are some of the lowlights of just the first two years in office for Obama.
What happens the next two years all depends.
Not unlike Carternomics in 1980, Obamanomics will leave America worse off. It should be ovbious by then that "in that crisis, government is not the solution to our problems, government is the problem." So, the fate of the Republican Party and the prospects of America will depend on whether the Republicans in Congress get that in earnest.
They can begin to prove that understanding by all voting against the Obama/Pelosi tax increases in unison as they did in the early ‘90s when Clinton sought to raise taxes. They must also vote against the spending and regulations referenced above.
If they do so, the Republicans will have a chance to take back the Congress - IF . . . if they learn once and for all that voters want a clear and bold agenda (a) which separates the parties in clear and very obvious ways, (b) which significantly lowers tax rates, and (c) which aggressively reforms and streamlines government thereby saving taxpayers real money and providing better solutions to the problems Americans face.
In sum, Republicans must become the party that truly fosters the conditions by which people, not government, can succeed.
If Republicans don’t, then the next 2 years could be even worse.
Neville's note We thought we would add this from Stephen Baldwin
WHAT VOTERS NEED TO KNOW
Written by Steve Baldwin
Friday, 10 October 2008
Here is what American voters need to know.
The following information has been completed on my own time and not on behalf of any group or organization. It is based upon my own research and uses contacts I have in all branches of the US government, conversations with think tank leaders, policy experts, election law attorneys, sources within the McCain campaign, and top political consultants.
Obama belonged to a Socialist Party. New Information has come out confirming that Obama was a member of a radical socialist political party in Chicago called the "New Party," composed of former Black Panther members. Several documents have confirmed Obama's membership as recently as 1996. Obama's supporters have attempted to "scrub" websites clean of this information but fortunately, researchers made copies of it before it disappeared. So far, the media is refusing to cover this story.
Obama continues to hide his past. Obama has continued to block reporters from gaining access to any and all medical, school, and even legislative records from his state senate days. The media should be screaming about this but they are not. This makes Obama the least known presidential candidate in perhaps American history. All of McCain's records have been made available.
The only thing we do know about Obama's time at Columbia University is that the title of his thesis was "Soviet Nuclear Disarmament" but he will not release it. I wonder why.
Michelle Obama has written a racist thesis. Access to Michelle Obama's senior thesis at Princeton was also blocked until recent effort by researchers to gain access to it. I can understand now why access was initially blocked.
In her thesis, Michelle identifies herself as a black separatist and is clearly hostile to the notion of blacks integrating into the larger society with all the evil whites. This is Farrakhan type racism that could have easily been written by a Klansman from a white perspective.
Do you think if Cindy McCain had written a thesis about white separatism, it would be news?
Illegal foreign contributions are pouring into Obama's campaign at an unprecedented rate. Analysis of Obama's disclosures reveal he has received around $32 million dollars from overseas, much of it from the Middle East. There are 11,500 foreign donations. 520 of the donors list their country as "IR" which is Iran. He received millions from "Palestinians" and others hostile to US policy. Such contributions are illegal and the Republican Party has asked the FEC to investigate.
Even more alarming is that $190 million of his contributions are unidentified. The donor is not listed. Many donors are clearly using fake names such as "Good, Will." The problem is that the FEC has no power to freeze Obama's campaign or even stop him from continuing to receive foreign money.
All that will happen is that Obama will be fined AFTER the campaign is over. With 10% of Obama's money coming from overseas, this means that for the first time in American history, foreigners will influence the outcome of a presidential election.
Anti-American dictators are praising Obama. Just about every anti-American dictator in the world has issued words of praise for Obama: Cuban dictator, Fidel Castro, North Korean ruler, Kim Jong-il, Venezuelan strongman, Hugo Chavez, Libyan dictator, Moammar Qadhafi, and so forth.
Never before in American history have so many enemies of America praised a candidate for the presidency. Not only that, but an array of communist and socialist parties both here and abroad have praised him. Even terrorist groups such as the pro-Al Qaeda HAMAS and the Columbian terrorist group (and heroin producing) FARC have praised him.
And what did Obama promise in return? Such praise and endorsements do not come casually. This means that people representing Obama must have met with these groups and leaders and have promised changes in US policy favorable to them.
Obama's extremist friends go into hiding. The Obama campaign is frantically covering up all Obama's socialist and Marxist connections by keeping his wacko friends away from the press. They just need to keep Americans in the dark for one more month! Moreover, documents that show Obama's work with extremist groups are disappearing. But I don't hear our crack reporters yelling "censorship!"
Forced union dues used for Obama. The unions are gearing up for the largest campaign mobilization in US history. We now know that they have allocated over $100 million dollars of forced union dues to a massive independent effort attacking McCain and supporting Obama. On election day, hundreds of thousands of union workers will mysteriously call in sick and will work on getting the vote out for Obama.
Polls are showing some discouraging trends. They show that people are blaming the fiscal crisis upon the Republicans, even though Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were created by Democrats and banks were forced by Democrats to make high risk loans to low income people all in the name of "equality" and "compassion".
Indeed, it was Obama's group, ACORN, who played a key role years ago in pressuring these agencies to implement such policies. Three of the key architects of this policy are now involved with Obama's campaign. Moreover, McCain is the one who authored sweeping legislation to reform all of this and it was blocked by the Democrats.
Americans don't know who controlled Congress the last two years. Polls also show that most Americans do not know that the Democrats took power in late 2006 and thus had oversight over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; nor do they know that the Democrats shut down every inquiry into these rogue agencies and ignored every sign of trouble.
Nor do Americans realize that right after the Democrats took control, the economy went south. Except for the foreign policy arena which the Constitution explicitly grants power to the presidency, Bush has been a lame duck for two years in all other policy areas.
Indeed, every economic indicator plunged downward AFTER the Democrats took control of Congress in 2006 - inflation, unemployment, job creation, etc, and yet, a misinformed public is blaming Bush, and by extension, McCain for the economy and sadly will be voting based upon ignorance of basic facts.
McCain is not Bush. Most Americans also do not know that McCain fought Bush on Iraq strategy, earmarks, spending, tax policy, education policy, homeland security issues, etc, etc, and that he is by far the most independent member of Congress while Obama never crossed the aisle and was just an isolated far left senator.
It is now clear that we are paying a price for the vulgarization of American culture. We have polls showing many Americans get their "news" from Saturday Night Live, John Stewart, David Letterman, Jay Leno, and even from incoherent ramblings by such popular cultural figures as Alex Baldwin, Whoopi Goldberg, and so on.
Americans engage in less serious reading and far more in entertaining themselves than any previous generation of Americans. This is truly sad and will cost our country in ways we can't even predict.
Obama has hordes of attorneys ready to challenge votes. We now know that the Obama campaign has around 10,000 lawyers volunteering to work on election monitoring. As the Kerry campaign had four years ago, there will once again be an effort to decertify absentee ballots sent in abroad from military personnel, based on petty mistakes often made with such ballots.
Thousands of military personnel were disenfranchised four years ago and since they usually vote Republican, the Obama campaign will repeat this effort.
Obama is registering thousands of illegal aliens. While the Obama campaign works hard to disenfranchise the men and women fighting to protect us from terrorism, at the same time they're working feverishly to register illegal aliens, felons, and the homeless by the hundreds of thousands.
Video clips have already appeared on You Tube showing the Obama campaign registering illiterate homeless people. Most states do not ask for proof of citizenship to register to vote, so hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens will be voting for Obama.
The group that has specialized in registering illegal aliens for a decade is, in fact, Obama's former "community service" group -- ACORN. While ACORN has been in legal trouble repeatedly for this work, the Obama campaign has contracted them out do to "voter registration." Wink, wink.
Lots of felons will be voting. Not by coincidence, democrat governors and democrat legislators are granting felons the right to vote. Just last week, the Virginian Democrat governor gave thousands of felons the right to vote. Remember, crime pays! The Governor claims this action has nothing to do with the coming election. Right.
Democrats are already disqualifying ballots in Ohio. In Ohio, the Democrat Secretary of State is already disqualifying thousands of Republican absentee ballots, claiming they didn't check some obscure box on the absentee forms. The GOP is filing suit here. But expect Republican ballots to be challenged all over the country by the legions of left wing trial attorneys who are volunteering their time to help steal the election just in case it's close.
Taxpayers groups are being ignored by the media. There are four major taxpayer groups in Washington DC that monitor taxation and spending issues full time. All have now rated Obama as one of the worst senators on tax, spending and pork issues, while also rating McCain as one of the best senators on these issues. All have issued press releases but the media has purposely ignored this story.
Obama supports gay marriage. Recently, both Obama and Biden have made false statements about opposing gay marriage. They know the vast majority of Americans oppose gay marriage, but in both private messages and private speeches, the Obama campaign has informed the homosexual community that they favor repealing DOMA.
DOMA is a federal law that if repealed, means all states will have to recognize married homosexuals who move there from states which have already legalized homosexual marriage - like Massachusetts and California. It's a back door way of legalizing gay marriage nationwide and it's why all the radical gay groups have mobilized for Obama unlike any other candidate before.
With the exception of Fox News, none of the above mentioned developments is being covered by the major media in any meaningful way. All have been given this information. We all know, however, that if McCain took millions of dollars from Middle Easterners, was praised by a half dozen foreign dictators, and hid all his medical and school records, there would be huge stories on TV, radio and the newspapers for weeks on end.
The media is protecting this candidate to a degree never before seen in presidential campaign history.
Predictions if Obama Becomes President
I have been asked for my predictions of what will happen if Obama were to win the presidency and take solid control of both houses. Put your seatbelt on:
Jobs will leave America and job creation will decline. The capitol markets are starved for cash due to the credit crisis. What is needed more than anything right now is tax cuts for corporations so they can survive the coming recession. This is the worst possible time to raise corporate taxes as Obama is proposing.
Our corporate tax hikes are already among the highest in the industrialized world and this was killing us BEFORE the fiscal crisis. But Obama doesn't understand how the economy works. He views corporations as a source of funding for his social programs. Period.
If he goes through with his corporate tax hike, look for corporations to 1) Outsource jobs overseas 2) Move the entire corporate headquarters overseas, 3) Delay expansion plans, 4) Lay off workers.
Obama's proposal for a government takeover of health care insurance will send the stock market plunging in regards to health care plans, due to the instability such a proposal would create. Obama's plan will drive private plans out of existence, eventually taking over the entire health care market. Also, as in Canada and other nations with "universal" health care, the good doctors leave the profession, creating a shortage, and waiting lists will be instituted for most procedures.
The doubling of capital gains taxes will bring job creation to a grinding halt. There aren't many economists who argue with this point. But Obama doesn't seem to understand this. If this goes through, look also for the unemployment rate to rise.
There will be a flurry of lawsuits against private Christian schools, churches, etc. on the gay issues, all due to the legalization of gay marriage which creates a legal framework for a full frontal assault on American culture.
With the Obama administration using its power to promote homosexual marriage, gay attorneys will work in tandem with Obama's justice department to chip away at religious freedom, claiming gay rights now trump constitutional rights. Lawsuits will be aimed at forcing private Christian schools to admit gay teachers and to teach gay sex alongside heterosexual sex in sex ed courses.
Similarly, churches that refuse to marry gay couples will be the subjects of lawsuits as well. Indeed, gay legal groups are already laying plans for the final assault on what's left of America's Judeo-Christian culture.
Union power will have a negative impact on the economy. Obama has promised the unions he will remove the secret ballot which means unions will be able to intimidate workers as they did in the 1950s. This means more power, more money, and more demands on industry. This also means more corporations moving offshore or filing for bankruptcy.
The cumulative impact of higher corporate taxes, higher capital gains taxes, and stronger unions - on top of a severe fiscal crisis -- means America will likely have a recession lasting 3-4 years.
Criticism of Obama's agenda will be suppressed. Similarly to the Clinton administration, Obama will use the power of the government to harass opponents with IRS audits. He will also suppress criticism of his agenda by passing the "Fairness Doctrine" which will cause radio stations to remove talk shows. The talk show industry is already preparing for the assault. This is not a joke.
Illegal alien rights will be federalized. Obama has spent much of his career fighting for the "rights" of illegal aliens. There is little doubt he will use his Justice Department to fight for these "rights" which in turn will attract millions of additional illegal aliens. What little gains made in the last few years in fighting for a more secure border will be lost.
The reemergence of bogus race-based rights. Obama believes in wild racial conspiracy theories such as quotas for police arrests and pull overs, reparations for blacks based on the notion all whites are guilty of perpetrating slavery in the past, and that lending agencies based their lending policies on race instead of credit risk.
Indeed, it was the last issue used by Obama's group, ACORN, to fight for high risk lending policies which caused the mortgage crisis we have today.
This worldview will mean that Obama's Justice Department to spend its resources on charging businessmen with racism for not hiring enough minorities, spending millions on federal studies "proving" racism in law enforcement, and going after universities for not implementing race-based admission plans.
Internal Security will be weakened resulting in America becoming more vulnerable to terrorism. Obama has been critical of our internal security apparatus, including the program that monitors the phone calls of foreign terrorists and other elements of the Patriot Act. What most Americans don't know is that Bush's aggressiveness on internal security prevented dozens of terrorist plots, many of which the public never knew about.
Obama's close ties to ACLU type attorneys make it likely that he will weaken internal security measures such as the Patriot Act. This will send an "open season" message to Islamic terrorists.
Just this week, a court has ruled that we must release terrorist prisoners from Guantanamo and grant them all the rights US citizens have. Obama supported this decision. Then we have Obama declaring in his own book (Audacity of Hope), "I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction."
Gas prices will rise. Obama's hostility to drilling and nuclear power means he will rely totally on "alternative" forms of energy to meet our energy needs but there isn't an energy expert alive who will claim this will enable us to meet our energy needs anytime in the next few decades. Coupled with Obama's proposal to increase taxes on an already over-taxed oil industry - which will be passed on to consumers - you can expect to pay steep prices for gas for many years to come.
Welcome to Obama's America.
Steve Baldwin is Executive Director of the Council for National Policy.
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